Wednesday NJ weather: Back to 50s, another little taste of spring
The Bottom Line
This is a weird weather forecast. Temperatures flip back to the mild side for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. You may notice a hint of Spring in the air, with temperatures in the 50s — more typical of mid to late March than early February.
Of course, by this point of the season, Newark Airport normally has seen a foot and a half of snow. So far this year? 0.4 inches. That's it.
There are two storm systems we're watching too. One batch of showers during the day Thursday. And then a potentially more impactful system over the weekend. That one is very track-dependent. At the very least, Sunday is looking rainy along the coast. Will wet weather drift inland, statewide? And could there be a snowy component to this one too?
The day begins grey and damp, thanks to overnight showers. As of this writing (7 a.m.), showers have exited the southern coast. We are left with some mist and fog. And for well-inland areas to the north and west, temperatures have dipped into the 20s, raising a concern for icy windshields and slippery spots. Closer to the coast, we're in the 40s.
It is going to turn into another very nice day. Sunshine emerges by mid to late morning. And then the afternoon will be partly sunny. It may turn a bit breezy at times. By the rest of the day will be dry and mild. Look for high temperatures in the lower to mid 50s.
(In fact, based on the latest temperature trends, I would not be surprised to see an isolated 60 on the temperature map Wednesday afternoon.)
Wednesday night stays quiet, with scattered clouds and most lows in the lower to mid 30s.
Temperatures will be similar to Wednesday. But the weather won't be quite as pleasant.
A weak storm system passing overhead will produce two shots of rain showers Thursday:
1.) To the north and west, around midday.
2.) Statewide from mid afternoon through the evening hours.
All light stuff. And all wet, not wintry. Just damp and dreary.
Temperatures Thursday afternoon will range from about 40 in North Jersey to lower 50s in South Jersey. And then a surge of warmth will push everyone into the 50s by late evening. Thermometers should then settle back into the upper 40s by sunrise Friday morning.
I told you, it's a weird and wild and crazy forecast.
40s in the morning, then back in the 50s one more time Friday afternoon.
We should see a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day. Despite the mild temperatures, Friday will also be a transition day. So I am concerned a gusty wind will kick up, making things less than pleasant as temperatures start to drop late-day.
Back to the cool side. And computer models are still trying to resolve a coastal storm system and its potential impacts on New Jersey. This is still a low confidence forecast, with many question marks. But here is how I see the weekend playing out, as it currently stands.
Saturday looks cool and dry. Highs scale back to the mid 40s, which is just a hair above normal for this time of year. Plenty of sunshine to the north. Plenty of cloud cover to the south.
On Sunday, the aforementioned coastal storm system will make its closest pass to New Jersey. This forecast is highly track dependent. And there are probably three possible scenarios here:
1.) Out to sea, total miss. Maybe a few showers late Saturday into early Sunday, but that's it.
2.) Low pressure clips NJ, leading to a period of rain on Sunday for southern and coastal areas only.
3.) A storm track closer to the coast will put precipitation over the entire state on Sunday. And, since this is a colder solution, it could be a snow-to-rain situation. (Although accumulations would be limited, at best.) Total rainfall could exceed an inch to the southeast.
I can't say that I favor one track over the other at this point, because they're both feasible. I am leaning away from a "complete miss" situation, although it's still on the table. That is an issue, because option #3 could get pretty sloppy and impactful.
Stay tuned to the forecast, as we refine these details more and more as the weekend gets closer.
The Extended Forecast
Once again, my apologies to snow lovers (and snow resort owners and snow plow drivers, etc, etc, etc) as there's nothing big at all on the horizon.
Usually, I say that "horizon" extends for 7 to 10 days. But realistically, I believe it is going to be very difficult to see a substantial winter storm develop in February. It's just too warm, and the storm track just isn't right.
So that leaves March. A notoriously active, stormy weather month. There's still plenty of opportunity to get buried in snow. But Ol' Man Winter had better hurry up — Spring is only 40 days away.