The Bottom Line

Welcome to August! On average, this is New Jersey's second hottest and second wettest month of the year, behind July in both categories. We are still in the "dog days of summer," with the warmest normal temperatures of the year.

But we still have a taste of September-ish weather in the forecast. A very dry air mass is firmly in control of our atmosphere, keeping both humidity levels and rain chances low. Both Tuesday and Wednesday look beautiful.

Changes arrive on Thursday. It will get cloudier and stickier. And some showers and thunderstorms may impact your outdoor plans into Friday.

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If you liked Monday's weather, you will like Tuesday a lot too.

We are starting off comfortable Tuesday morning, with temperatures averaging 60 degrees. Highs Tuesday afternoon will shoot for about 80 degrees. That is about 5 below normal for early August, but still nice and warm.

Skies will range from mostly to partly sunny, definitely looking bright and cheery. And, unlike Monday which featured some stagnant isolated showers along NJ's southern coast, Tuesday looks rain-free.

It is worth mentioning that a plume of Canadian wildfire smoke will be passing south through New Jersey's atmosphere. So the sky may look hazy, washed-out, and milky for a time. However, the smoke particulates are way up in the air this time around. Not at the surface. So air quality issues are not expected.

Tuesday evening stays uneventful and comfortable, with low temperatures again near 60 degrees.


Wednesday will probably be our coolest day of the week. Perhaps a little taste of September-ish weather in the air.

High temperatures will average upper 70s Wednesday afternoon. The day will once again feature low humidity, dry weather, and plenty of sunshine. Some clouds will start to build late-day.


Changes begin. But for the most part, the daytime hours will be fine.

Four things will increase slightly on Thursday: Cloud cover, humidity, temperatures, and rain chances.

Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, dew points will creep from the 50s into the 60s. That will translate to a "somewhat sticky" feel to the air, a bit more summer-ish than earlier in the week. High temperatures, meanwhile, will bump back into the lower 80s.

From mid-afternoon through the evening hours, we will have to watch for spotty showers and thunderstorms to form. This will be the first of several weak waves to ride through our atmosphere. The dynamics do not look strong enough to support severe weather or flooding threats — just some raindrops and rumbles of thunder.


Friday is the most unsettled day of the week. The day where your outdoor plans will be in the most jeopardy. However, it is still not a total wash.

There is a chance for a thunderstorm at any time Friday. But right now, the highest risk will once again fall during the afternoon and evening hours. This time around, storms will have some moisture and instability to play with. So things could get pretty nasty for a few hours. (The Euro model is a worst-case scenario, painting upwards of 3 inches of rainfall along the Jersey Shore.)

When it is not raining, Friday will stay mostly cloudy. High temperatures will be highly dependent on the spread and intensity of rain, likely on either side of 80 degrees.

The Extended Forecast

As long as Friday's disturbed weather plays out as expected, I think conditions will clear out nicely for the first weekend of August. The current forecast favors seasonable temperatures in the 80s, lots of sunshine, and falling humidity levels.

There is still nothing big on the horizon — no tropical storms, no heat waves, no cold snaps, etc.

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Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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