A Quiet Hurricane Season Forecast Has One Catch for New Jersey

For as much as people love living at or near the New Jersey coastline, the reality is that there is one major hazard to life at the Jersey Shore how the weather can negatively impact daily life.

Just this year, we had two winter storms that caused extensive damage and power outages around South Jersey. Over the last 25 years, New Jersey has been visited by four major hurricanes that total over $2 Billion in damages caused by the storms around the state.

But two groups of weather researchers have good news for New Jersey as we enter the heart of the summer season, with positive implications for the fall season as well.

What Weather Experts Say About New Jersey Hurricane Forecast in 2026

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) prediction models are calling for a " below-normal hurricane season" for the Atlantic Ocean in 2026. While there have already been three tropical storms forming in the Pacific Ocean in the first nine days of June, the Atlantic Basin has zero activity, and there is one possibility for a "disturbance" in the Bay of Campeche off the eastern coast of Mexico.

NOAA’s National Weather Service is projecting a total of 8-14 storms to develop in the Atlantic Basin for the summer and fall seasons of 2026. What qualifies as a "storm" is a weather system that has winds of 39 miles per hour or higher.

Out of those 8-14 potential storms, NOAA projects only 3-6 of those are forecasted to progress into a Hurricane (winds of 74 mph or higher). For comparison, an "average season" projection would have at least seven hurricanes.

Colorado State Researchers have similar projections for the 2026 Hurricane Season (June-October). The CSU Team forecasts 11 storms and 5 hurricanes this year in the Atlantic Basin; The annual average number of storms from 1991-2020 is 14.4 and annual average number of hurricanes is 7.2 - This is why both CSU and NOAA are projecting a "below average" Hurricane season in 2026.

One note from CSU Researchers and NOAA is that both groups expect "El Niño conditions" to impact the 2026 Hurricane season. El Nino can "suppress hurricane development" in the Atlantic Basin. But forecasts are expecting warmer-than-average water temperatures this summer, which could be the genesis for tropical storms to form in the Atlantic Ocean from August through October.