Thursday NJ weather: More sunshine, calmer winds, April-ish temperatures
The Bottom Line
The pleasant weather continues. On Thursday, New Jersey will be in the core of a cool, very dry air mass. That has allowed for temperatures to really tank overnight, making for a chilly morning. And high temperatures will be held about 10 degrees below seasonal normals. Even so, sunshine and lighter winds will keep things beautiful across the Garden State.
Friday looks good too, as temperatures start to warm again. Saturday turns unsettled, with not one but two chances of rain. And then Sunday could be the nicest day of the bunch.
As of 6 a.m. temperatures across New Jersey were as cold as 26 degrees in Sussex County. 30s and frost extended as far south as the Pine Barrens in Burlington County. And the warm spot in the state was LBI in Ocean County, at 53 degrees.
An unusually cold May morning. Our coldest in almost four weeks, by the way.
Thermometers will rise to the lower to (maybe) mid 60s by Thursday afternoon. Nice and springlike, although firmly below normal for mid-May.
Just like Wednesday, we'll have brilliant sunshine and completely dry weather. Unlike Wednesday, the breeze will be light. So it will feel less blustery. And the fire danger will be much lower too.
Thursday night will be clear and cool, although not as cold as the night before. Lows will end up in the mid to upper 40s.
Yup, another nice day, although a close fly-by of a coastal storm system will introduce some changes.
We will alternate periods of sun and clouds across Friday. I have opted for a dry forecast for now, although showers may some perilously close to the Shore at some point.
A stiff breeze will kick up out of the southeast. That dreaded on-shore breeze, pushing cool ocean air toward the beaches.
High temperatures Friday will probably range from around 60 along the immediate coast to 70 for inland NJ. (Most spots leaning toward the warmer side of that range.)
The one piece of unsettled weather in this forecast, with two rain chances to talk about.
The first storm system of the day will be an area of low pressure sliding up the coast, presenting a chance of rain Saturday morning along the eastern edge of New Jersey. Nothing heavy or severe — just wet. That round of rain should wrap up around lunchtime.
Then, the day will remain mostly cloudy. And you'll feel some humidity in the air. (Just like last Saturday.) High temperatures will end up on either side of 70 degrees — cooler where it rains, warmer where it does not.
The second push of wet weather will be from a weak cold front sweeping from northwest to southeast Saturday evening. It is unclear whether showers will "survive" through the entire state, or whether rain will fizzle out before reaching the southern coast. In a perfect situation, there could be some rumbles of thunder.
Bottom line: Definitely not a washout Saturday, although raindrops could impact part of your day. Especially early on, in coastal counties.
A shower may linger through about daybreak on Sunday. And then we charge into what could be the nicest day of the week.
The sun will come out Sunday morning. And temperatures will warm into the mid 70s. And so begins another stretch of dry, bright weather.
The Extended Forecast
All eyes are on the Memorial Day Forecast, which kicks off in just eight days. Long-range models suggest very low chances of rain through the rest of May.
My only concern is that we get some backdoor cold front action late next week, introducing that dreaded on-shore breeze. That could bring in a period of cloudy, drizzly cool weather.
On the other hand, my latest read of model guidance is that an on-shore breeze late next week could help keep a building heat ridge away from New Jersey. In such a scenario, it would not be too dreary — call it partly sunny. And temperatures in the 70s would be seasonable and pleasant.