Several days of sunny, warm weather in the forecast for NJ
It's been over two weeks since NJ saw a 72+ hour stretch of dry weather. The next few days look lovely, before things turn iffy for the Memorial Day Weekend.
As of this writing (5:30 a.m. Wednesday), we still have two isolated batches of rain pushing through northern New Jersey. As those exit by about 7 a.m., we'll still have some fog and drizzle hanging around through about 9 a.m. And then sunshine will quickly take over the skies of North Jersey. South Jersey will hold on to clouds through at least part of the afternoon. But it's still going to turn into a pleasant day, no matter where in the state you are.
High temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s. That is about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late May.
Wednesday night looks comfortable and quiet. Skies will finish clearing out for everyone and humidity drops a bit, allowing low temperatures to dip into the mid to upper 50s.
And then along comes Thursday. There are only a few days each year that are truly perfect, and I think Thursday qualifies. Spectacular sunshine and beautiful blue skies. Lovely light winds. Delightful dry weather. Wonderful warm temperatures. OK, I'm done now. High temperatures will be about 75 to 80 degrees for Thursday afternoon.
Friday looks pretty solid too, although a strongest southwest wind will push thermometers even higher. (Southwesterly is our "blast furnace" wind direction.) Forecast highs range from the lower to mid 80s. Sunshine wins the sky again, and we'll remain dry.
The Memorial Day Weekend will be far from perfect. But I'm hopeful we'll catch a few pockets and periods of pleasant weather.
Saturday looks hot. High temperatures will probably touch 90 degrees in a few spots, especially inland and especially around our urban corridors to the NE and SW. My biggest question mark is how strong that southwest wind will be. My current forecast of 15 mph is light enough to allow the sea breeze to keep the Jersey Shore much cooler, probably in the 70s — making for a good beach day. However, if that land-based wind blows to 20+ mph, it will dominate the sea breeze and cause the beaches to cook, with highs in the 80s.
Models suggest a popup shower or thunderstorm will be possible after about 5 p.m. Saturday. And then, as a backdoor front influences the Garden State, our weather situation looks very different for Sunday and Monday.
No matter what, the second half of the holiday weekend looks to become cloudier and cooler. Temperatures on Sunday will start in the lower 70s, falling through the 60s by the afternoon. Monday's temperature forecast currently ranges from the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Worst case scenario, Sunday and Monday will turn pretty wet. The latest guidance suggests scattered showers for both days. "Scattered" is the operative word here — that means rain will be hit-or-miss, on-and-off, and not heavy/steady all day.
The Memorial Day Weekend is still 4 to 6 days away, so there's plenty of time for this forecast to evolve. And so, there's plenty of time for us to add precision and detail to this complicated forecast.
Again, bottom line... Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday look nice. Saturday will be pretty steamy. And then Sunday and Monday turn iffy.